SLU Poll: Trump leads Biden by 7; Parson and Galloway in Dead Heat in 2020 Missouri Matchup

07/13/2020

A new Saint Louis University/YouGov Poll of likely Missouri voters finds that Republican President Donald Trump holds a lead over Democratic rival, former Vice President Joe Biden, while Missouri Governor Mike Parson is in a statistical tie with Democratic nominee and current State Auditor Nicole Galloway.

Trump Leads Biden

The survey found that 50% of likely Missouri voters plan to support Trump in the November election. Forty-three percent of voters state that they will support Biden, and 4% of voters are undecided.

“Trump is trailing Biden in national polls, but he is on track to win Missouri again in 2020,” said Steven Rogers, Ph.D., director of the Saint Louis University/YouGov poll. “Trump’s largest support comes from Evangelicals and voters 50 and older. Partisans take familiar sides with the 2020 candidates, but Trump leads Biden by 15% among independent voters.”

A majority of Missouri voters also approve of the President’s job performance, but only slightly. Fifty percent of voters indicated their approval of President’s Trump performance, and 49% of voters stated they disapproved. Trump’s approval rating among Missouri Republicans is 93% but only 6% among Democratic voters.

Support among men and women for Trump in Missouri is down from 2016, from 62% to 56.5% for men and from 53% to 43% among women.

“Trump still shows strong support among voters without a college degree, but his support among four-year college graduates is sharply down,” said Kenneth Warren, Ph.D., associate director of the Saint Louis University/YouGov poll. “Among college graduates, Trump’s support has fallen from 55% support in 2016 to 41% in our poll. While 45% of males with four-year college degrees say they will vote for Trump, only 36% of four-year college degreed women say they will.”

Parson and Galloway in Dead Heat

The poll finds that 41% of likely Missouri voters plan to support Parson in the November election. Thirty-nine percent of voters indicated support for Galloway, and 17% of voters are undecided.

“While Parson leads Galloway, the results of our poll show a statistical tie,” said Warren. “Given the high percentage of undecided voters, there is a lot of uncertainty in this race just four months from election day.”

Parson shows strong support among white, Republican, Evangelical voters living disproportionately in rural Missouri, while Galloway’s strength was found in Democratic strongholds in the Kansas City and St. Louis metro areas. Galloway’s support is bolstered by significant support among African American voters who overwhelmingly favor Democratic candidates.

“A potential explanation for the tightening governor’s race is how Parson has handled the COVID-19 crisis and the economy,” said Rogers. “Forty-seven percent of likely voters disapprove of how the Governor has handled the COVID pandemic, and 71% of likely voters rate the Missouri economy as “Fair” or “Poor.”

“Given the pandemic’s impact on the state’s economy and the number of undecided voters in the governor’s race, it will be interesting to see how the pandemic plays out over the final few months of the campaign,” Rogers said.

Overall, less than half of Missouri voters approve of the Governor’s job performance. Forty-five percent of voters polled stated they approved of Parson’s performance, with a 43% disapproval rating. Parson’s approval rating among Missouri Republicans is 79% but only 16% among Democratic voters.

YouGov interviewed 900 likely Missouri voters between June 23, 2020 and July 1, 2020. The YouGov panel, a proprietary opt-in survey panel, is comprised of 1.2 million U.S. residents who have agreed to participate in YouGov Web surveys and regularly used by CBS News and The Economist. Using their gender, age, race, and education, YouGov weighted the set of survey respondents to known characteristics of registered voters of Missouri voters from the 2018 Current Population survey. The margin of error for the weighted data is 3.95%.

Survey results

About YouGov

Saint Louis University has partnered with YouGov to conduct its annual survey of Missourians. YouGov conducts surveys for multiple academic institutions and is the primary, trusted survey firm for media organizations, including CBS News and The Economist. An independent Pew Research Center study of online survey firms in 2016 further concluded YouGov “consistently outperforms competitors.”

About Saint Louis University

Founded in 1818, Saint Louis University is one of the nation’s oldest and most prestigious Catholic institutions. Rooted in Jesuit values and its pioneering history as the first university west of the Mississippi River, SLU offers nearly 13,000 students a rigorous, transformative education of the whole person. At the core of the University’s diverse community of scholars is SLU’s service-focused mission, which challenges and prepares students to make the world a better, more just place.