SLU/YouGov Analysis: Missourians' Approval of Political Figures Remains Steady

by Kenneth Warren, Ph.D.

SLU's Kenneth Warren, Ph.D., provides expert analysis of the latest SLU/YouGov poll results and how Missourians view their elected officials and key institutions.

President Joe Biden (D), Governor Mike Parson (R), and U.S. Senator Josh Hawley (R) all received about the same approval ratings from Missourians in our August 2023 SLU/YouGov poll as they did in our August 2022 SLU/YouGov Poll. While 36% approved of President Biden’s job performance in August 2022, slightly more, 38%, said they approved of his performance in our August 2023 poll. Our findings are in line with national approval scores for Biden, with the realclearpolitics.com average showing Biden’s approval at 41.1%. Ironically, Trump’s realclearpolitics.com average approval percentage in August of 2019 was also 41.1%. Trump went on to lose his presidential race in 2020, although Trump’s problems in capably handling the pandemic, according to the polls, weakened his reelection chances.

Likely voters’ responses to ‘Do you approve or disapprove of the way each is doing their job: President Joe Biden? 38% approve, 60% disapprove; U.S. Congress: 16% Approve, 74% disapprove; U.S. Supreme Ct. 43% approve, 52% disapprove, Missouri State Leg. 46% approve, 45% disapprove, Mike Parson, 49% approve, 43% disapprove, Josh Hawley 47% approve, 45% disapprove, Eric Schmitt 42% approve, 38% disapprove.

Governor Parson’s approval percentage remained virtually the same, with an approval score of 50% last August and a 49% approval rating in this year’s August poll. Parson is term-limited, so he cannot seek reelection. Senator Hawley’s approval percentage improved by 1%, from 46% last August to 47% this August. This is the same approval percentage he received in the latest Missouri Scout/Remington Poll in February 2023. Although this score is below 50% approval, his approval score is a little above average for U.S. senators. However, it is worth mentioning that Hawley’s approval score ranks near the bottom in Nate Silver’s ratings of U.S. senators because he factors in the partisan slant of the state, suggesting that Hawley’s raw approval scores are inflated by the redness of Missouri. Nonetheless, Hawley should easily win reelection in 2024 in Missouri, a state that has turned solid red. He defeated incumbent U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill (D) in 2018 by a comfortable margin, 51.4% to 45.6%, even though incumbent U.S. Senators rarely lose.

In 2022 Missouri’s Attorney General, Eric Schmitt, ran to replace retiring U.S. Senator Roy Blunt. Schmitt won easily over political novice Trudy Busch Valentine, 55.4% to 42.1%. In our August 2023 SLU/YouGov poll, Schmitt received a 41.5% approval rating, somewhat below the other Missouri politicians we polled. Schmitt’s lower approval score may reflect the controversial role he played as Attorney General, where he filed several lawsuits considered frivolous by legal observers but filed to bolster his support among his Republican base.

Likely voters' responses to 'Do you approve or disapprove of the way each is doing their job: Senator Eric Schmitt?'. February 2023 Voter Responses: 15% Strongly approve, 29% Approve, 11% Disapprove, 24% Strongly disapprove, and 21% Not sure. August 2023 Voter Responses: 13% Strongly approve, 29% Approve, 13% Disapprove, 25% Strongly disapprove, and 20% Not sure.

Missourians in our August 2023 poll gave low approval ratings to the U.S. Congress, as they did in our August 2022 poll, although the approval percentage dropped to 16% this August compared to 22% last August. This percentage compares to an August 2023 Economist/YouGov poll showing 18% approval and a July Gallup poll showing 19% approval. However, Missourians gave a much higher approval percentage to the Missouri Legislature, 47%, compared to a 46% in August 2022. This is a common survey finding since people tend to rank their institutions “close to home” better than those in D.C.

Likely voters' responses to 'Do you approve or disapprove of the way each is doing their job: The US Congress?'. June 2020 Voter Responses 1% Strongly Approve, 14% Approve, 48% Disapprove, 27% Strongly Disapprove, and 10% Not sure. October 2020 Voter Responses: 1% Strongly approve, 15% Approve, 47% Disapprove, 31% Strongly disapprove, and 6% Not sure. July 2021 Voter Responses: 2% Strongly approve, 18% Approve, 34% Disapprove, 34% Strongly disapprove, and 12% Not sure. August 2022 Voter Responses: 2% Strongly approve, 20% Approve, 39% Disapprove, 33% Strongly disapprove, and 6% Not sure. February 2023 Voter Responses: 2% Strongly approve, 20% Approve, 47% Disapprove, 21% Strongly disapprove, and 11% Not sure. August 2023 Voter Responses: 1% Strongly approve, 15% Approve, 50% Disapprove, 24% Strongly disapprove, and 10% Not sure.

Due to controversial Supreme Court decisions (e.g., Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, 2022, restricting abortion access) and negative media reporting on the politicization of the Supreme Court, along with ethics problems, the Supreme Court has dropped in popularity. In August 2022, Missourians gave the Supreme Court a 44% approval rating, with only 9% strongly approving, while this August approval dropped slightly to 43%. In national polling, Gallup shows approval ratings for the Supreme Court reaching historic lows. While in a 2000 Gallup poll, 62% approved how the Supreme Court was handling its job, only 40% approved in its latest 2023 polling.

Likely voters' responses to 'Do you approve or disapprove of the way each is doing their job: The US Supreme Court?'. February 2023 Voter Responses: 7% Strongly approve, 41% Approve, 21% Disapprove, 23% Strongly disapprove, and 9% Not sure. August 2023 Voter Responses: 9% Strongly approve, 34% Approve, 29% Disapprove, 23% Strongly disapprove, and 5% Not sure.

This analysis is based on data from the August 2023 SLU/YouGov poll and reflects the opinion of the author.