SLU/YouGov Analysis: SLU/You Gov Poll Shows that Missouri Voters Will Approve Major Missouri Ballot Propositions on Nov. 5, Involving Reproductive Health Rights, Sports Betting, and Raising the Minimum Wage

by Ken Warren, Ph.D. on 08/29/2024

08/29/2024

SLU's Kenneth Warren, Ph.D., provides expert analysis of the results of the latest SLU/YouGov Poll, examining where Missourians stand on a variety of issues.

Our SLU/YouGov Poll shows that on Election Day, Nov. 5, Missouri likely voters will approve major ballot propositions on the Missouri ballot, including a reproductive rights amendment, an amendment to permit sports betting, and a change in Missouri law to permit raising the minimum wage. All three measures, according to our polling, will pass by comfortable margins.

The chief ballot measure is Amendment 3, which involves abortion rights. Amendment 3 asks voters to approve “the right to abortion at any time of pregnancy”, allowing abortions “to be restricted or banned after fetal viability except to protect the life or health of the woman.” Other reproductive rights are included such as “the right to make decisions about health, including abortion and contraceptives,” without government interference. The amendment also requires “the government not to discriminate, in government programs, funding, and other activities, against persons providing or obtaining reproductive health care.”

Of course, Amendment 3 has attracted national attention, as have other abortion rights amendments in other states since the U.S. Supreme Court ruled to overturn Roe v. Wade in Dobbs in 2022. The Dobbs’ decision angered reproductive health advocates, causing them to place abortion rights propositions on the ballot in many states having strict anti-abortion laws such as Missouri. In the six states that have already voted on pro-reproductive health laws allowing abortions, all passed. According to our SLU/YouGov poll, Amendment 3 will likely pass as well in Missouri since our polling shows that likely voters in Missouri favor its passage, 52% to 34% with 14% undecided. Even if all undecideds voted “no”, which would be very unlikely, Amendment 3 would still pass by 4%.

Likely voters' responses to 'Would you support the above ballot proposition?': 52% Yes, 34% No, and 14% Not sure. Democratic voters' responses: ' 80% Yes, 11% No, and 10% Not sure. Republican voters' responses: 32% Yes, 51% No, and 18% Not sure.

A look at the crosstabs reveals that both men and women favor passage of Amendment 3, with 51% of the men and 53% of the women favoring passage. All age groups also favor passage with those under 45 most favoring passage. A majority of all races say they will vote to pass the Amendment as well with 50% of white voters, 72% of black voters, and 63% of “all non-white” voters. However, support for Amendment 3, as one would suspect, differs dramatically between likely Republican and Democratic voters. While 80% of Democrats say they will vote “yes” on Amendment 3, only 32% of Republicans said they would, while 53% of Independents said they would support Amendment 3.

Regarding income, the higher the household income of likely voters, the more likely they would support Amendment 3: 48% making below $50,000 per year, 49% between $50,000 and $100,000, and 66% making over $100,000. Since higher educational levels tend to be positively related to higher incomes, it was not unexpected to find that an almost perfect pattern was found between educational levels with those possessing higher educational levels more inclined to vote for Amendment 3: 44% with high school or less. 49% with some college, 63% with four-year college degrees, and 57% with graduate education.

Our poll results for Missouri likely voters were found to be quite consistent with national polling by Pew Research in a May 13, 2024 release. That is, Pew Research found that both men and women supported abortion rights with women slightly more supportive than males; younger voters more supportive than older voters, although all age groups supported abortion rights; minorities more supportive than white voters, although all races supported abortion rights; and Democrats more supportive than Republicans. Pew Research reported no findings regarding linkages between income and educational levels and support for reproductive health rights. It is worth noting that the reason reproductive health rights measures are passing in so many states is because, according to public opinion polling, the vast majority of voters in the U.S. support reproductive health rights, as our poll showed in Missouri and Pew Research has shown to be the case nationwide.

Additionally, our SLU/YouGov Poll found expectedly that those living in the metro areas of Kansas City and St. Louis were much more likely to support Amendment 3 than those in the rural areas of Missouri. While 57% and 64% favored passage of Amendment 3 respectively in the Kansas City and St. Louis metro areas, only 45% in northwestern Missouri, 39% in northeastern Missouri, 41% in southwestern Missouri, and 41% in southeastern Missouri did.

Constitutional Amendment 2, the sports betting amendment, was also favored by Missouri likely voters by a wide margin, 50% for and 30% against, with 21% saying “not sure”. If voters approve, Amendment 2 would “permit licensed sports wagering regulated by the Missouri Gaming Commission and restrict sports betting to individuals physically located in the state and over the age of 21” A 10% wagering tax would be placed on the gambling revenues and “appropriated for educational institutions in Missouri”. Our poll found that men were more likely to vote for Amendment 2 than women, 58% to 42%, although only 28% of women said they would vote against it with a large percentage of women, 30%, responding that they were “not sure." A majority or plurality of all age groups expressed support for Amendment 2, with younger voters much more supportive than older voters; 65% of voters 18-29, 59% of voters 30-44, but only 43% of those 45-64 and just 44% of those 65 or over.

Likely voters' responses to 'Would you support the above ballot proposition?': 50% Yes, 30% No, and 21% Not sure. Democratic voters' responses: ' 58% Yes, 17% No, and 24% Not sure. Republican voters' responses: 44% Yes, 35% No, and 21% Not sure.

Black likely voters were more supportive than whites, 55% to 48%, while 59% of “all non-whites” said they would vote for Amendment 2. More Democrats said they would vote for Amendment 2 than Republicans, 58% to 44%, while 50% of Independents said they would. Those with higher income and educational levels were found to be more supportive of Amendment 2 than those with lower income and educational attainment. While only 43% of those with household incomes below $50,000 annually said they would vote for the amendment, 50% of those with annual household incomes between $50,000 and $100,000 would, and 62% of those with household incomes over $100,000 would. A very similar upward pattern was found for education. Only 42% of those with high school degree or less would vote for Amendment 2, 51% of those with some college experience would, 56% of those with a four-year college degree would, while 55% of those with graduate education would. A slightly different pattern was found for support for Amendment 2 by region of the state than for Amendment 3. The metro areas of St. Louis and Kansas City were more supportive of Amendment 2, 56% and 58% respectively, than the rural areas of Missouri in general, as found for Amendment 3. However, for Amendment 2 support was strong in northwestern Missouri at 57%. Other rural areas were much less supportive; 42% in northeastern Missouri, 40% in southwestern Missouri, and only 34% in southeastern Missouri.

Missouri likely voters also express strong support for Proposition A, which would raise “the state minimum wage beginning Jan. 1, 2025, to $13.75 per hour and increase the hourly rate $1.25 per hour to$15.00 per hour beginning January 2026. Annually, the minimum wage will be adjusted based on the Consumer Price Index. The law will require employers with fifteen or more employees to provide one hour of paid sick leave for every thirty hours worked”. The amendment to Missouri law “will exempt governmental entities, political subdivisions, school districts and education institutions from the minimum wage increase”. A comfortable majority of likely voters, 57%, said they would vote for Proposition A, while only 30% said “no” with 14% “not sure.” Strong support for Proposition A was shown across all demographics with either a solid majority or a strong plurality expressing support. Men and women favored Proposition A, 54% to 59% respectively. All age groups supported the proposition with younger voters more likely to vote yes; 71% of voters 18-29, 67% of 30-44, 51% of 45-64, and 49% 65 and over.

Likely voters' responses to 'Would you support the above ballot proposition?': 57% Yes, 30% No, and 14% Not sure. Democratic voters' responses: ' 87% Yes, 5% No, and 8% Not sure. Republican voters' responses: 37% Yes, 44% No, and 20% Not sure.

However, Republicans and Democrats were polar opposite in their support for Proposition A. While 87% of Democrats supported the minimum wage proposition, only 37% of Republicans did. No real pattern was found by income or educational levels with all voters by income and educational levels supporting it. Likely voters in the metro areas of St. Louis and Kansas City were much more supportive of Proposition A, 65% to 62% respectively, than those voters living in the rural areas of Missouri; 44% in NW Missouri, 44% in NE Missouri, 50% in SW Missouri, and 49% in SE Missouri.

This analysis is based on data from the August 2024 SLU/YouGov poll and reflects the opinion of the author.