SLU/YouGov Poll Asked Likely Missouri Voters About Issues That May Appear On 2024 Ballots

SLU's Kenneth Warren, Ph.D., provides expert analysis on the results of the latest SLU/YouGov Poll, examining where Missourians stand on various possible ballot issues.

In our February 2024, SLU/YouGov poll, we asked likely Missouri voters how they felt toward various issues, some of which may appear on Missouri’s ballot in 2024. One issue the Missouri Legislature is considering is whether to pass legislation that would reduce state taxes on groceries for all Missourians. State sales taxes would be eliminated for products and food eligible for SNAP (formerly known as food stamps). We asked Missouri likely voters whether they would support this proposed legislation. Expectedly, our respondents expressed overwhelming support, with 49% saying they “strongly support” and 33% “support.” Only 11% opposed this proposed legislation with 9% “opposed” and 2% “strongly opposed.” Strong support was seen across all demographics.

We also asked the same question, but this time we focused on whether Missouri’s likely voters would support eliminating local sales taxes on products and food eligible for SNAP. Strong support was also expressed for this proposal, but not as strong as for the proposal to eliminate state sales taxes. A total of 72% supported this proposal, with 44% “strongly supporting” and another 28% “supporting.” Only 18% opposed, with only 3% “strongly opposed” and another 10% “not sure.” Greater combined support came from Republicans, 80%, and Independents, 75%, than from Democrats, 64%. Those with yearly incomes less than $50,000 were more supportive, 80%, compared with those reporting incomes between $50,000 - $100,000, 68%, and those above $100,000, 68%. Black respondents were found to be more supportive than white respondents, 84% to 70%, respectively. Those with lower educational levels were more supportive than those with higher educational levels: high school or less, 76%; some college, 76%; four-year college, 71%; and post-graduate, 59%.

We asked this same question again, but this time we asked whether Missouri’s likely voters would support eliminating local sales taxes on products and food eligible for SNAP if the state replaces lost revenue for local governments. A smaller percentage supported this proposal, 60%, with 31% “strongly approving” and 29% “approving.” Black voters, 71%, and all non-white voters, 70%, were more supportive than white voters, 59%.

Missouri’s voters in 2024 will likely be asked to vote on a proposal to amend the state constitution to protect abortion rights. The ballot amendment has many components, but it essentially asks voters to vote on whether they want to pass a constitutional amendment that would remove Missouri’s ban on abortions; establish a right to make decisions about reproductive health care, including abortions and contraceptives, without government interference; prevent Missouri government from discriminating in the funding of government programs against persons providing or obtaining reproductive health care; and allow Missouri government to restrict or ban abortions after fetal viability except to protect the life or health of the women. The proposed amendment, like those appearing in other states since the U.S. Supreme Court in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Org. in 2022 overruled Roe v. Wade, is a pro-choice proposal.

Missouri’s likely voters are somewhat split over the proposed constitutional amendment, but a plurality, 44%, say “yes” to the proposal, while 37% say “no” with 19% “not sure.” Somewhat surprisingly, the same percentage of men and women say “yes” at 44%. Black voters support the proposal more than white voters, 63% to 43% respectively. Younger voters (ages 18-44) are more supportive than older Missourians, 18-44, 54% “yes,” 45-64, 41% “yes,” and 65+, only 37% “yes.” But this largest gap can be seen between Republicans and Democrats with Independent voters in between. Democrats overwhelmingly would say “yes” to the amendment, 71%, while only 24% of Republicans would, and 44% of Independents would vote “yes.” Those with higher educational levels would be slightly more likely to support the amendment, but it was not found to be statistically significant. Expectedly, those in the state's metro areas were much more likely to vote “yes” than those in Missouri’s rural areas. In the St. Louis metro area, 78% said they would vote “yes,” while in the Kansas City metro area, 85% said they would vote “yes.” However, in rural Missouri. support is weak, with only 31% in northwest Missouri saying “yes,” 43% in northeast Missouri, 34% in southwest Missouri, and 37% in southeast Missouri. Given the 19% “not sure” percentage and the fact that there has been no political advertising for or against the amendment, it would be difficult to predict at this time, based on our SLU/YouGov poll data, whether this proposed amendment would pass or not, although the chances for passage appear somewhat better than non-passage.

In our SLU/YouGov poll, we also asked a few questions about issues of concern to Missourians. Some of these are being considered to become law in Missouri either through ballot initiatives or the Missouri Legislature. A proposal that has been floating around for some time has been whether property taxes should not be raised for Missouri homeowners who are 62 years old or older. Support is overwhelming for this proposal, with 80% “agreeing,” only 13% “disagreeing,” with 8% “not sure.” Older likely voters are much more likely to favor this proposal, with 88% in both the 45-64 and 65+ age categories “agreeing” compared to 65% for those 18-29 and 61% for those 30-41.  White respondents favor the idea more than Black respondents, 81% to 68%, while Republicans favor it more than Democrats, 88% to 72%.  Those living in the St. Louis metro area least favor the proposal, with only 71% “agreeing,” compared with all other areas of the state we surveyed favoring it from 82% to 87%.

Whether gambling on sports should be legalized in different capacities in Missouri was also asked in our SLU/YouGov poll. We asked whether betting on professional sports for those 21 years old or older should be legal in Missouri. Sixty percent said it should be legal, while only 25% said it should not be legal, and 14% said “not sure.” Younger likely Missouri voters were more supportive than older voters, with 76% of those ages 18-29 and 72% 30-34 saying it should be legal compared to 60% for 45–64-year-olds and only 45% for those 65+. Black voters were more supportive than white voters, 73% to 59%. There were no significant differences in other demographics.

We asked the same question again, but this time, we asked whether betting on collegiate sports should be legal for those 21 or older. This time, support was noticeably lower, with only 47% saying such betting should be legal, 39% saying it should not be legal, and 14% “not sure.” Again, those in younger age groups were more supportive compared to older Missouri likely voters, with 60% of those between 18-44 years old saying such gambling should be legal compared to 48% for those 45-64 and only 31% for those 65+. Black voters again were more supportive of such betting than white voters, 62% to 45%.

Likely voters were also asked whether they think it should be legal to allow video lottery gaming machines in convenience stores for those 21 or older to play. Less than a majority said this should be legal, 46%. Forty percent said they were opposed, while 14% said “not sure.” A perfect pattern downward was found among age groups, with 63% of those ages 18-29 saying it should be legal, 30-44, 57%, 45-64, 44%, and only 32% for those 65+. Again, Black voters were more likely to say it should be legal, 70% to 44%. No other demographics stood out, except for those in the highest education category, post-graduate, who were the least likely by far to support such gaming, 37%.

We asked the same question regarding video gaming machines, but this time, we asked whether they should be allowed in bars, truck stops, fraternal organizations, and veterans’ organizations. This time the support was higher with a slim majority, 54% saying such gaming should be legal, 31% saying not legal, with 15% saying “not sure”. Expectedly, younger age groups again were more supportive of such gaming than older age groups with 66% in the 18-29 age group supportive, 65% for those 30-44, 53% for those 45-64, and only 42% for those 65+. Black respondents again showed more support for such gaming than white respondents, 66% to 53%. No other demographics appeared noteworthy.

Finally, we asked a few questions concerning the death penalty. In our SLU/YouGov poll, we asked likely voters whether they favor the death penalty in cases of first-degree murder. A majority “favored,” 62%, while 24% “opposed,” with 14% saying they were “not sure.” This is similar to findings for the death penalty nationally, where the Pew Research Center found 62% favored the death penalty. Older age groups “favored” more than younger age groups: 18-29, 59%, 30-44, 50%, 45-64, 68%, and 65+, 67%.

Republicans were much more likely to favor the death penalty in such cases, 86% to 37%, while white voters “favored” more than Black voters, 63% to 51%. Another perfect pattern downward was found for educational levels, with those in the lowest educational level favoring the death penalty the most, high school or less, 72%, some college, 64%, four-year college, 58%, and post-graduate, 44%. Those in metro St. Louis and metro Kansas City areas were least likely to support the death penalty, 53% and 56%, respectively, compared to those living in the rural Missouri areas we sampled, where 67% to 79% favored the death penalty.

We also asked whether likely voters approved of the judge in a death penalty case sentencing the death penalty or life in prison without parole if the jury cannot reach a unanimous decision to sentence the death penalty. Of those polled, 48% “favored,” 35% “opposed,” with 16% “not sure.” Again, those in younger age groups were less likely to “favor” than those in older age groups, 41%, 18-29, 40%, 30-44, 53%, 45-64, 52%, 65+. Republicans were much more likely than Democrats to give the judge this sentencing power, 67% to 33%, with Independents in between with 42%. Those with lower educational levels also “favored” giving judges such power compared to those with higher educational levels, 59% for high school or less, 49% for some college, 39% for four-year college, and 38% for post-graduate education.

Additionally, we asked whether likely Missouri voters favored allowing the governor to change the death penalty sentence to life in prison without parole. Of those polled, 52% “favored” and 30% “opposed” giving the governor such discretionary power. Democrats “favored” this more than Republicans, 59% to 42%, with Independents in between, 53%. Those with the lowest educational level were least “favored,” 41%, while those in the highest educational category, post-graduate education, were the most favorable, 66%.

This analysis is based on data from the February 2024 SLU/YouGov poll and reflects the opinion of the author.